Energy

Just over three years after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission, on 17 June, proposed ambitious plans to phase out Russian gas. The European Parliament and Council are rushing to come to an agreement, ahead of a key January 2026 deadline. But the plans don’t affect all member states equally. Some are vocally in favour, while others are entrenched in their opposition. Gas flows, the ability and willingness to find other suppliers, legal risks and politics all play a major role. As talks advance, Contexte looks at the positions of twelve key EU countries, from Hungary to France.

Over the summer, a joint summit of Franco-German leaders suggested they were trying to repair long-standing divisions over the role of nuclear energy. Yet just months after the deal, confusion reigns: Paris boasts about a “historic” agreement in favour of low-carbon energy, while Berlin is walking on eggshells. Political turbulence in Paris, and the need for Germany to gain support for its own gas-powered plans, are only making the situation more complex.

With the roll-out of the clean industrial deal, new climate targets and ambitious plans to ban Russian fuels, Brussels was just getting started with its new energy roadmap when the US forced its hand, insisting on an exacting trade deal. The European Commission is now likely to spend the next few months trying to get back on track from that Trumpian manoeuvre.

The Commission president’s State of the Union speech usually sets the EU’s political tone for the year ahead; this year’s instalment, due on 10 September, could be in a minor key. It comes as Ursula von der Leyen contends with a string of existential struggles, geopolitical challenges from Washington to Kyiv, cracks in the bloc’s unity, and rising questions about her capacity to lead.

Hungary, a major importer of Russian fuels, has been a thorn in the side of Brussels’ plan to phase out gas imports. Attila Steiner, State Secretary in the Budapest energy ministry, told Contexte it was too early for his country to commit to a phase-out date for Russian gas — and described Ukraine’s strike on the Druzhba oil pipeline as an intolerable attack on ‘critical infrastructure’ A pledge to buy more US gas, made as part of the EU’s recent deal with President Donald Trump, isn’t a workable alternative, he said.