Reporting from Istanbul
When the European Parliament votes on the 2014 report on Turkey, prepared by Kati Piri (S&D, Netherlands) during its Strasbourg plenary on 8-11 June, the results of the hard-fought general elections in the country will already be known. Polls predict a fourth consecutive victory, on 7 June,for the Conservative-Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has been in power for twelve and a half years now. But victory may prove costly for President Tayyip Erdogan: failure by…
Background
The AKP would need at least 276 of the 550 seats in the parliament in Ankara to continue to govern alone, and a three-fifths majority, or 330 seats, in order to write on its own a new constitution for President Tayyip Erdogan. The draft would then have to be submitted to a referendum, according to Article 175 of the current constitution. Erdogan aims for a presidential constitution, which would allow him to rule by decrees and without a prime minister. However, the AKP does not look likely to win a two-thirds majority, or 367 seats, in the upcoming elections. Without this, the party would not be able to adopt a new constitution without submitting it to a referendum.
Ten percent threshold
Introduced by the Turkish military after the coup of 1980, the 10% threshold for representation in parliament – the highest among Council of Europe member countries – is still in force today. For years, the European Commission, the European Parliament and the Council of Europe have urged Turkey to lower this barrier. In 2013, then Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said that a debate would be held on the introduction of a 5% threshold, but subsequently the issue was put on the back burner. Until now, politicians currently affiliated with the Kurdish dominated HDP party have bypassed this threshold by running as independent candidates (and not as a party) and forming a parliamentary group only later, after the elections. This time, however, the HDP runs as a party and risks to be eliminated.
Introduced by the Turkish military after the coup of 1980, the 10% threshold for representation in parliament – the highest among Council of Europe member countries – is still in force today. For years, the European Commission, the European Parliament and the Council of Europe have urged Turkey to lower this barrier. In 2013, then Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said that a debate would be held on the introduction of a 5% threshold, but subsequently the issue was put on the back burner. Until now, politicians currently affiliated with the Kurdish dominated HDP party have bypassed this threshold by running as independent candidates (and not as a party) and forming a parliamentary group only later, after the elections. This time, however, the HDP runs as a party and risks to be eliminated.